Yet another war!
The question is why now? See below for the answer.
President Obama has finally decided that the Syrian government, or regime as they are now known, has crossed the “red line.” The red line is that Syria has been using chemical weapons on its citizens. He is now satisfied that they have, just after the biggest story of the decade was made public – that our government is spying on its citizens, recording everything and clearly violating the Fourth Amendment.
I doubt it is true, as the Syrian government would be mad to have done so. They aren’t mad, have a huge military and numerical advantage over the rebels (that includes substantial al-Qaeda elements) and the support of Russia and China.
If nerve gas was used, it’s logically by the rebels as they need western powers to actively back them, and will do anything to discredit the regime. The Syrian government didn’t need to use chemical weapons, and in a year or two it is likely that a commission will “discover” that they didn’t. It was all a mistake. Does this remind you of Iraq’s WMD program, our excuse for attacking them and completely untrue?
As long as the rebels were gaining ground, it was fine to have the chemical weapons red line ultimatum as Plan B, but the tide has turned and it’s thought that the regime can now win!
As such, President Obama is quickly moving to Plan B to supply weapons to the rebels, that may be used later to attack us, as in Afghanistan. New portable sophisticated weapons will command a high price on the black market, so I believe many will vanish. We will also be bypassing the United Nations lack of legal mandate, to provide air cover for the Syrian rebels so they can defeat the regime. Or so he thinks.
By “coincidence,” we happen to have war games planned in neighboring Jordan, so we can retask them to help the rebels. Unfortunately, the Russians won’t like that and will probably move forward with its plans to supply Syria, and possibly Iran, with sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles (and other weapons) so they can threaten to shoot down allied planes in Syrian airspace.
I think that our president and the Russians privately agreed that if we assist the rebels, or attack Syria, they will deliver their high-tech weapons and that have been blocking our action until now. Those weapons will either be flown in, driven about 900 miles (18 hours) through Azerbaijan, Iran, and Iraq to Syria, with Iran taking some for its own use (against Israeli attacks) or maybe waiting in ships offshore of the Syrian port of Tartus awaiting orders to unload. We are not about to torpedo Russian ships. Let’s hope not.
The other problem is that neither we, nor the Israelis will like that Iran will be able to knock down Israeli planes if they attack its nuclear sites, using these Russian anti-aircraft missiles. It’s a profitable business for the Russians, and they enjoy being a thorn in our side. The Cold War is returning, to the delight of the defense industry.
The key is that Russia likes its port in Tartus, Syria, in the same way we like ours in Bahrain, home of the Fifth Fleet.
Russia knows that if the rebels win, they will lose their only Mediterranean port. That’s why they are against the elimination of the Syrian government, that also buys a lot of weapons from them. This is the same for the Arab Spring uprising in Bahrain, that the Bahrainian army (with Saudi army help) put down there, but failed to elicit concern from Washington or the local press. Why? We also like our fleet headquarters there and plan to keep it.
Former KGB officer, President Putin of the Russian Federation doesn’t like us. Life is complicated and the Obama administration is making all of the wrong decisions, like the many made during the ongoing Hillary Clinton, Arab Spring fiasco.
This war will spread, as unlike the other Arab Spring disasters the Syrian government has the weapons to fight back against the rebels. It’s the law of unintended consequences.
Making a political decision wrapped in humanitarian packaging will rapidly devolve. President Obama will be initially praised for his decision, and later vilified for this simple-minded ploy. Why should he care? He can’t run again, he’ll get a huge pension, massive speaking fees and lifetime Secret Service protection. What’s not to like?
If you look at history. you’ll see many parallels with the Spanish Civil War, 1936-1939, between General Franco who won thanks to German and Italian assistance and the opposition, in which many civilians from other countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. fought. General Franco led a fight against the Spanish government regime that ultimately lost after years of fighting, ~five hundred thousand deaths and atrocities committed by both sides. Sounds familiar?
The Germans perfected their Stuka bombing techniques widely credited with helping Hitler win for a few years during the Second World War, starting later in 1939.
More interesting than that the final decision to arm the rebels has been made, is why now? The answer, I think has nothing to do with which side used nerve gas (remember the Gulf of Tonkin incident?) but is connected with the revelation of our government spying on its public. The Obama administration strongly suspects that The Guardian newspaper will continue to drop some bombshell disclosures so needs a very big distraction. That will be the new war in Syria.
The newspapers will be so busy writing about how many Syrians we killed and how many cruise missiles were fired, ($1.5 million each, and thanks from Boeing and Raytheon that makes them) that it will effectively suppress the new revelations. Or so he hopes.
Why is it that politicians say that they will do 1, 2 and 3 and will oppose 4, 5 and 6 when they are running for office, and then do the opposite after being elected? Is the public that naive that they don’t see through the lies? You decide.
If I’m elected next year, with your financial support, be assured what I say before, will be exactly what you’ll get after. This country needs fixing… fast.
