The odds according to the AJC

The Atlanta Journal Constitution, Washington political reporter, Daniel Malloy wrote an article in June about the statistical odds that a challenger would win their race for the U.S. House. He wrote that since 1968 there have been almost 10,000 people elected to the House of Representatives.

Statistically the odds are 1 in 100 that the incumbent will lose! That’s only a 1% chance of winning.

A national poll said that almost four in ten voters wanted their incumbent reelected but nearly five in ten wanted to try someone new.

In Georgia, during this election cycle, of the thirteen seats House available only six have challengers (including mine, the 11th district, in which there are (unfortunately) four! That means seven incumbents will be reelected although the public is gravely dissatisfied.

Why are seven running unopposed? It’s probably because the potential challengers realize that they only have 1% chance of winning and don’t want to waste their money. Don Quixote, where are you?

Why?

Without many donations, a candidate cannot get the exposure needed via media buys so his or her name will look familiar when the typical voter spends a few minutes selecting their candidates (or randomly clicking boxes) in the voting booth.

So when the typical voter sees three or four names in a race, they will almost only recognize one… the incumbent, if that. If they forget, the gentle nudge of the word “Incumbent” next to one name will help them for whom to vote for. They will get the vote and the incumbent stays in Washington forever.

The other names are just names, and because the average voter has no idea of who is running on what platform and what if anything the incumbent has accomplished (or not) so the incumbent wins.

Sad. Disagree? Write your comments.

Vote for Allan Levene for Congress.